The Barbara Fritchie
The Barbara Fritchie may have offered the best bet against so far
this year. While no one horse in the race had a very positive line,
the 4-5 shot Nany's Sweep looked to be in declining form, was giving
a 2 point spot in weight to most of the field, and had run relatively
poorly in her last 2 starts. Some of her underlay was the result
of former Md jockey champion Kent D shipping in with her, but mostly
I would think that she was being bet off her last win in a SA GR I
for which she earned a 10 on a day where she had plenty of time
into the race with no apparent excuses. Another # in the 9-10" range
with 2 points added for weight didn't figure to hit the board.
Deciding who to play for me was much tougher. Since my only real
opinion in the race against the favorite, I looked for exacta and
tri plays. Since I didn't have a key horse and a five horse box
wasn't going to net much if anything if the shorter horses came in,
I looked for another throwout. Unfortunately the only one I could
find was the longest shot in the race. Ivy's Jewel numbers were
competitive but I thought her pattern was very negative. From a 9
top she went back to a 10- and then a 10+ and was now coming back
on a little shorter rest. I'm not sure at the odds that she was
a great throwout, but as the last of the purists I preferred leaving
out a horse with a weak pattern. The other horses looked to me
to have the possibility of running in the 8"-10 range and I hoped
that at least 2 and maybe 3 of them would do so. Having 2 of the
longer ones run 1-2 and winning the nose photo for 3rd was just
the icing on the cake--being lucky doesn't hurt.
The sheets for the all the horses in this race can
be downloaded by clicking on the individual race listed below.
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Laurel Park - Race 9: February 17, 2001