RECOVERY PLAYS:

Truth and Nobility is a good example of a classic long term recovery pattern. The 8 top she ran a year ago obviously set her back. In the immediate period after the 8, the best she could do was 13”s. Later in the year she got down to a 12” which was a positive sign that she might be moving back toward the 8. Three races later she moved to a 11”, giving even more encouragement that she was recovering from the setback in form caused by the 8 top.
In last Saturday’s race, she was coming off a non effort, (14”), and had a month’s rest also. She was ambitiously spotted in a stakes race which was both an encouraging sign that she was training well (making the month off positive), and also a situation that produced long odds in a race where she was a solid competitor.

Click here for the Sheet for Truth and Nobility.

West Fork is an example of a somewhat more subtle recovery pattern. After his peak out of 11+, his form not only deteriorated in level sharply, but he also was largely unable to make it to the races. His recent races, however, offered hints in three different ways, that he might be moving back toward the 11+.
First, he was making it to his fourth race in a grouping for the first time since the 11+. Second, his last race was a point forward from his first race in the current grouping. Third, his last race was a small forward movement from the ~18” level he had been stuck at for the last year. These three factors together, I think, overcome the overall spottiness of his line at least enough to play him to go forward if the price is right.

Click here for the Sheet for West Fork.

Truth and Nobility was the easier play for me, since she was 20 - 1 in a race where only one horse was figured to have a good shot to beat her 11”. While West Fork was also over 20 - 1, he needed to go forward at least three points just to become a factor in the race. Unfortunately, I just put him in a three horse exacta box and watched him win while I tore up my tickets.

                                                                               Len Friedman