A Value Play
A Philadelphia Sheet user just sent me a fax chortling about a score he made in the eleventh race at Monmouth on Monday, May 31.
A race of lightly raced Jersey bred maidens with four first-time-starters is an unlikely place to find a good illustration of a value play, but perseverance sure paid off here.
Of the horses who had run, the five Sheets appended (with final odds), were the only real contenders. With the fastest horse, Hille Blues, winning at a generous 9-2 and a random contender, Pineland Gold, finishing second at 64-1, our player complains that Sheet users must have been responsible for the "light" $335 exacta payoff.
I think Pineland Gold is a big overlay, particularly because of the timing. His two good races came after rest and his off race was coming back on only a two week gap. With the two months rest into the race, it was appropriate to ignore the bad last race and take a shot. My own personal thanks to Brad Thomas of the D.R.F. for pointing out that Garden State horses can't win at Monmouth.
Click the links below or in the text to see the sheets for these five horses: