Following are my analyses of two races:
1. The Laurel Dash on November 3, 1998 (the Sheets say Calder -
it was a simulcast on the Calder card).
The dash was a very competitive race. Many horses figured to be able to run between a 9 and a 12.
2. An off turf allowance race at Fairgrounds. This race was a simple price play.
The links above will take you to the races...
Click the horse names to see the Sheet for the horse.
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|Wise Dusty||32:1||7 y.o. whose turf numbers (13-7) not competitive.|
|Roman Rating||13:1||Competitive numbers but coming off 3 tops (tied) in last 4 races; good chance to go backward.|
|One More Power||48:1||5 y.o. who bounced off a 1.5 point top in last. Has chance to run a 12 but seems to need two months between good races. Must use in exotics at the price.|
|Sport D'Hiver||34:1||Lots of good numbers; very few off races. Seems to be forging to a possible 7 or 8 and likely no worse than a 10. Rare horse that is improving at 6 y.o. Must include in exactas.|
|Soldier Field||4:5||Deserves favoritism. Young improving horse with a nice turf pattern. Has potential to run a 7. Unlikely to run worse than a 10, but at 4:5 odds does not represent value.|
|Receiver||7:1||Experienced horse with only 1 U.S. turf start (a 14+) and an 8th place finish in Japan. Dirt numbers are very competitive but is suspect on turf. At 7:1 is probably a throwout.|
|Tyaskin||6:1||Another competitive and consistent horse who figures to run between a 10 and a 12, possibly a 9. Use in exotics but is no faster than Sport D'Hiver, who is 34:1.|
|Aryial Delight||23:1||Paired up 9 tops three back and has started to regress. As a 6 y.o. filly, chances are she will get worse before she gets better. Throwout.|
|G H's Pleasure||4:1||Another competitive horse but no faster than many others in here. Figures to run an 11 to 13. At short price, tempted to throw him out.|
|Citislipper||16:1||Just ran a 7 point bew turf top. Will probably bounce at least 4 points and maybe more, especially off 10 days rest. Possible light use in exotics.|
|Howbaddouwantit||49:1||Solid and improving pattern. Ran a new top (9+) second off a brief layoff two back. Is now second time off another brief layoff. Good chance to move up. Also is getting 4-7 pounds from most of the field. Not a stickout, but at nearly 50:1, a great horse to key in exotics.|
The race was, as expected, very competitive. Howbaddouwantit beat Soldier Field by a nose with Sport D'Hiver third. The exacta paid $315 and the trifecta returned $7302. The key to betting this race was throwing out 3 to 5 horses based on pattern and/or price and using the high odds horses in exotics, hoping for a price. When it works it really pays!
All in all, (in my opinion), an excellent analysis. On a few horses I would shade it differently (and perhaps blow the trifecta!)
One More Power: I would read more negatively. Only one # lifetime that is competitive, off three big efforts, and probably still reacting to 10+ top.
Sport D'Hiver: I would read him more negatively also. He looks like he's reached the end of his yearly campaign and is tailing off as usual. 10+ up would be my expectation.
Receiver: Reading a lot into one distance turf effort on 8 days rest off a top. I would have been more scared of him.
The two 3 yo's who finished 1-2 are a good example of the value , particularly late in the year, of betting 3yos in good condition against older horses at the end of a year's campaigning.
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|Ever Lasting||3:1||Clearly not the same horse she was. Note the new trainer after a 15 month layoff. Ignore the turf bounce, but gap after the race is not a good sign. Good chance to run significantly worse than a 12.|
|Shashobegon||2:1||Solid horse. The 8- in October 1998 was probably the best this horse would get and she has only been able to run 10s since then. Short rest and a 10" in last make her a good candidate to run a 12 or 13.|
|Dancing Water||10:1||A layoff horse with only one dirt race in the last 16 months. All dirt numbers except one are a 13 or worse. No reason to think that she will run particularly well but is not impossible.|
|Heritage Of Gold||13:1||Beautiful overall pattern. Steady march forward to a 10 top with small moves. Had an off race since her top. Even though the 10 came on the turf, she has run basically the same on dirt and turf. Now has been given some time. Top contender and huge odds.|
|Remember Ike||4:5||Deserving favorite, but at 4:5 is a terrible price. Ran 8s as a 3yo but has not broken a 10" since, even with rest. Very dangerous but worth taking a shot against.|
As you may have guessed, Heritage Of Gold won and paid $29. Once again, the price dictated the play.
Very much like the key horse. I would have saved with Remember Ike in exactas, as his line, with time, looks almost as good , and he started off 2 points faster.
How nice it is to get a value price on an A+ condition horse!
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